The Georgetown and Halton Hills area has been waiting for the Vision Georgetown development for many years now, but the first phase of construction still hasn’t begun. The reason behind this delay? The Ontario Land Tribunal (OLT).

THE HISTORY OF THE ONTARIO LAND TRIBUNAL

Before the Ontario Land Tribunal (OLT), the Local Planning Appeal Tribunal (LPAT) was an independent adjudicative tribunal that conducted hearings and made decisions on land use planning issues and other matters. Before the LPAT, the OMB was Ontario’s first independent, quasi-judicial administrative tribunal. In 2017, the OMB was continued as the LPAT. On June 1, 2021, LPAT was amalgamated and continued into the OLT.

The OLT is a provincial decision-making body that conducts hearings to resolve disputes arising under the Planning Act. It also reviews most applications for official plan amendments, zoning bylaw amendments, and minor variances made by municipalities.

ONTARIO’S BUILDING APPROVAL PROCESS IS NOTORIOUSLY SLOW

The Ontario Building Approval process is notoriously slow. The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, for example, only approves about 1 in 10 permit applications submitted to it. This means that if someone applies for a building permit on January 4th, they will not have received a decision from the Ministry until November 30th. In order to fix this problem, we need to establish a more efficient process.

THE HISTORY OF THE PROJECT

In our first Vision Georgetown update all the way back in 2017, we noted that the Town of Halton Hills had released its Draft Preferred Land Use Plan for Vision Georgetown: a 1000-acre development between 10 and 15 Side Roads, Trafalgar Road, and Eighth Line. The Plan stated its aims to accommodate approximately 19,000 residents in 3,478 detached homes, 1,950 townhouses, and 1,207 apartments. The Plan also detailed aims to introduce around 1,700 new jobs in Georgetown and a wealth of schools.

In 2018, the Town of Halton Hills held its fifth Vision Georgetown Public Open House. The Town confirmed new changes to its Plan, including a new combined Catholic elementary school/secondary school, the relocation of another elementary school, locations for stormwater management ponds and heritage resources, and new positioning for the north-south road to accommodate a stormwater management pond in the core.

A year later, the council passed the Vision Georgetown Secondary Plan. They made final changes, including plans for a new linear north-south corridor and a stormwater conveyance corridor to replace a planned stormwater drainage area. The council then passed the Official Plan Amendments (OPA) to the Region of Halton for approval.

Last year, the Region issued a Notice of Decision, approving the Town of Halton Hills OPA. The Town then received six letters of appeal to modify the OPA, which the OLT must now help resolve.

THE CURRENT STATE OF DEVELOPMENT

It was rumoured that there was a dispute over municipal water supply — whether it would come from Brampton or Milton. However, we have confirmed with the Town of Halton Hills that water is coming from lake Ontario through Milton. The Town also offered insight into the range of issues that require the OLT to be involved. The landowners have many concerns including how certain natural features are required to be protected, the orientation of the road network, and how the community core is positioned within the new community. These issues collectively result in a very different land use pattern than that approved by the Region. The OLT has yet to schedule a date for a resolution hearing. It’s now looking like construction might be pushed back another two years at best.

HOW STOREY COLLECTIVE CAN HELP

We can help you stay in the know and up to date on Vision Georgetown. Subscribe now to get on the Vision Georgetown distribution list.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has released its latest market stats, which show a 30 percent decline in sales compared to the record result of 15,628 in March 2021. Month-over-month the average selling price dipped slightly to $1.3 million for all housing types. New listings were also down on a year-over-year basis, but by a much lesser annual rate than sales. This suggests that while market conditions remained very tight, homebuyers did not experience the same level of competition from other buyers compared to a year earlier. “Competition between homebuyers in the GTA remains very strong in most neighbourhoods and market segments. However, we did experience more balance in the first quarter of 2022 compared to last year. If this trend continues, it is possible that the pace of price growth could moderate as we move through the year,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Here’s our monthly breakdown of the stats.

GTA HOME SALES: TRREB’S MARCH 2022 STATISTICS

Below, you’ll find the main conclusions from TRREB’s March 2022 Market Watch report.

• GTA realtors reported 10,955 sales in March 2022, which is down 30% year over year.
• New listings dropped year-over-year, but by a much lesser annual rate than sales, pointing to a modest move to a slightly more balanced market.
• The average selling price was up by 18.5% year-over-year.

We’ve also taken a look at how GTA detached home sales have changed between February 2022 and March 2022 in Storey Collective’s communities.

• The sales-to-new-listings-ratio (SNLR) across the GTA for detached homes was down month over month. SNLR of 55%+ indicates a seller’s market, which means there are more buyers than properties for sale. SNLR between 34% and 54% indicates a balanced market with about the same number of properties for sale as there are buyers. SNLR of 35% or less indicates a buyer’s market with more properties for sale than there are buyers.

TORONTO

• Home sales were up by 130.7%. 
• New listings were up by 140%. 
• Average sale price was up by 1.8%. 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) dropped by 2.3% to 57.5%, trending toward a more balanced market. 

HALTON HILLS

• Home sales were up by 137.5%. 
• New listings were up by 198.2%. 
• Average sale price was up 24%. 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) dropped by 14.5% to 56.9%, trending toward a more balanced market. 

OAKVILLE

• Home sales were up by 192.4%. 
• New listings were up by 251.6%. 
• Average sale price was down 5.4% 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) fell by 10.9% to 53.8%, a balanced market. 

MILTON

• Home sales were down 8.4%. 
• New listings were up by 8.2%. 
• Average sale price was up 31.7% 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) increased by 6.8% to 70.3%, trending toward a more balanced market.  

BURLINGTON

• Home sales were up 147.3%.
• New listings were up 197%. 
• Average sale price decreased by 10.4%. 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) fell by 12.3% to 61%, trending toward a more balanced market. 

MISSISSAUGA

• Home sales were up 128.1%. 
• New listings were up 196.6%. 
• Average sale price decreased by 10.5%. 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) fell by 16.6% to 55.3%, a balanced market. 

You can also take a look at our community pages for Toronto, Halton Hills, Oakville, Milton, Burlington, and Mississauga. You’ll find our year-over-year and month-over-month market summaries on these pages.

HOW STOREY COLLECTIVE CAN HELP

When you’re ready to move, we’ll do the negotiating and you do the decorating. Call or email or save for later.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has released its latest market stats, which show that year-over-year new listings dropped, but by a marginally lesser annual rate than sales, pointing to a modest move to a slightly more balanced market. As a result, competition between buyers has eased slightly resulting in a month-over-month decrease in average sale price of detached homes in Halton Hills, Burlington, Oakville, and Mississauga. Very different from TRREB’s January 2022 Statistics with an average sale price increase of 11% month-over-month in these areas.

Here’s our monthly breakdown of the stats.

GTA HOME SALES: TRREB’S FEBRUARY 2022 STATISTICS

Below, you’ll find the main conclusions from TRREB’s February 2022 Market Watch report.

• GTA realtors reported 9,097 sales in February 2022, which is down 16.8% year over year.
• New listings dropped year-over-year, but by a marginally lesser annual rate than sales, pointing to a modest move to a slightly more balanced market.
• The supply of listings for low-rise home types (detached, semi-detached and townhouses) was also down year-over-year, but not by as much as sales.
• The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark has climbed by nearly 35% since February 2021.
• The average selling price across all property types was up by 27.7% year-over-year to $1,334,544. 

We’ve also taken a look at how GTA detached home sales have changed between February 2021 and February 2022 in Storey Collective’s communities. 

TORONTO

• Home sales were down by 14.1%. 
• New listings were down by 1.6%. 
• Average sale price was up by 23.2%. 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) dropped by 8.4% to 57.4%. An SNLR of 55%+ indicates a seller’s market, which means there are more buyers than properties for sale. 

HALTON HILLS

• Home sales were up by 9.8%. 
• New listings were down by 8.5%. 
• Average sale price was up 23.3%. 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) increased by 13% to 77.9%, still a strong seller’s market. 

OAKVILLE

• Home sales were down by 42.3%. 
• New listings were down by 23.8%. 
• Average sale price was up by 31.6% 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) fell by 17.8% to 55.4%, still a seller’s market. A SNLR of 55%+ indicates a seller’s market, which means there are more buyers than properties for sale.

MILTON

• Home sales were down 8.4%. 
• New listings were up by 8.2%. 
• Average sale price was up 31.7% 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) increased by 6.8% to 70.3%, still a seller’s market. 

BURLINGTON

• Home sales were down 8.4%.
• New listings were up 8.2%. 
• Average sale price increased by 31.1%. 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) fell by 12.2% to 67.3%, still a seller’s market. 

MISSISSAUGA

• Home sales were down 27.1%. 
• New listings were down 20.4%. 
• Average sale price increased by 26.7%. 
• The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) fell by 5.5% to 60.2%, still a seller’s market. 

You can also take a look at our community pages for Toronto, Halton Hills, Oakville, Milton, Burlington, and Mississauga. You’ll find our year-over-year and month-over-month market summaries on these pages.

HOW STOREY COLLECTIVE CAN HELP

When you’re ready to move, we’ll do the negotiating and you do the decorating. Call or email or save for later.

With rising residential prices far outpacing incomes and not enough homes on the market for everyone who wants to buy one, the supply issue is the root of Ontario’s­ housing affordability crisis. In addition to the supply shortage, nearly 2 years of record low interest rates helped Canadian home prices grow at their fastest pace on record. But will forthcoming rate hikes and a plan to build 1.5 million homes in 10 years slow the overheated housing market? We don’t think so.

LOW INVENTORY

Low inventory of homes for sale proved a major driver of prices in 2021. In a new report, online realtor Zoocasa said the Canadian Real Estate Association cites only four times in history when the national total months of inventory on the market dropped below two months, and they were all in 2021. However, low housing supply is not a quick fix.

The GTA remains the primary destination for new immigrants and is at the centre of the Canadian economy. For far too long, governments have focused on short-term band-aid policies to artificially suppress demand. Current market activity highlights decisively that these policies do not work, and unless governments work together to cut red tape, streamline the approval processes, and incentivize mid-density housing, ongoing housing affordability challenges will escalate.

In December 2021, Ontario appointed nine members to a new Housing Affordability Task Force that will provide the government with recommendations on additional measures to address market housing supply and affordability. The Ontario Housing Affordability Task Force released its report last week, outlining recommendations on how to do just that.

The Task Force has spent the last two months consulting municipal leaders, planners, unions, developers and builders, the financial sector, academics, think tanks, and housing advocates, on ways to:

• Increase housing density across the province
• End exclusionary municipal rules that block or delay new housing
• Depoliticize the housing approvals process
• Prevent abuse of the housing appeals system
• Provide financial support to municipalities that build more housing

The end goal: “We propose an ambitious but achievable target: 1.5 million new homes built in the next 10 years.” The 55 recommendations are outlined as follows, directly from the report.

HOW TO INCREASE ONTARIO HOUSING SUPPLY AND IMPROVE AFFORDABILITY:

• Recommendations 1 and 2 urge Ontario to set a bold goal of adding 1.5 million homes over the next 10 years and update planning guidance to make this a priority.
• Recommendations 3 – 11 address how Ontario can quickly create more housing supply by allowing more housing in more locations “as of right” (without the need for municipal approval) and make better use of transportation investments.
• Recommendation 12 would set uniform provincial standards for urban design, including building shadows and setbacks, do away with rules that prioritize the preservation of neighbourhood physical character over new housing, no longer require municipal approval of design matters like a building’s colour, texture, type of material or window details, and remove or reduce parking requirements in cities over 50,000 in population.
• Recommendations 13 through 25 would require municipalities to limit consultations to the legislated maximum, ensure people can take part digitally, mandate the delegation of technical decisions, prevent abuse of the heritage process and see property owners compensated for financial loss resulting from designation, restore the right of developers to appeal Official Plans and Municipal Comprehensive Reviews, legislate timelines for approvals and enact several other common-sense changes that would allow housing to be built more quickly and affordably.
• Recommendations 26 through 31 seek to weed out or prevent appeals aimed purely at delaying projects, allow adjudicators to award costs to proponents in more cases, including instances where a municipality has refused an approval to avoid missing a legislated deadline, reduce the time to issue decisions, increase funding, and encourage the Tribunal to prioritize cases that would increase housing supply quickly as it tackles the backlog.
• Other recommendations in the report deal with issues that are important but may take more time to resolve or may not directly increase supply (recommendation numbers are indicated in brackets): improving tax and municipal financing (32-37, 39, 42-44); encouraging new pathways to homeownership (38, 40, 41); and addressing labour shortages in the construction industry (45-47).

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) welcomes the recommendations from the Provincial Government’s Housing Affordability Task Force.  Governments at all levels must take coordinated action to increase supply in the immediate term to begin addressing the supply challenges of today, and to work towards satisfying growing demand in the future.

LOW INTEREST RATES

Interest rate hikes, signaled by the Bank of Canada to come in mid-2022, are on the minds of home buyers and homeowners alike. But how bad will it be?

To find out Zoocasa looked back to the last time Bank of Canada rates rose in 2018. That year there were three hikes and real estate activity did slow, with prices falling 4.9% year over year and sales down 19%.

But housing experts say the decline was mostly brought on that year by the introduction of the stress test, which cut affordability for the average home buyers by 20%, said Zoocasa.

“Although the last time interest rates rose we saw sales activity cool down, it’s important to remember that this change went hand in hand with the implementation of the mortgage stress test, which dramatically impacted the amount that prospective buyers could qualify for,” said Zoocasa CEO Lauren Haw. “And, because Canadians have been stress tested to qualify for their mortgages at rates upwards of 5%, we have been prepared as best as possible to weather an increase in rates.”

Under current stress test rules, fixed mortgage rates would have to rise to 3.25% for the amount buyers are qualifying for to change, she said. 

The scheduled dates for the interest rate announcements for 2022 are as follows:

• Wednesday, March 2
• Wednesday, April 13
• Wednesday, June 1
• Wednesday, July 13
• Wednesday, September 7
• Wednesday, October 26
• Wednesday, December 7

What can we anticipate and how do we navigate this? 

Variable rate clients, bank prime right now with most lenders today is sitting at 2.45%. If you happen to put your variable rate mortgage in place over the last couple of years, you’re most likely sitting at prime minus 1. Therefore, you’re at 1.45%. 

The Bank of Canada tends to move at quarter-point increases. To that end, based on their rate announcement schedule above, with 7 announcements left for 2022, that puts us at a maximum of 2.95%. 

With the supply improvements a work in progress and a long time coming and interest rates making little or no difference in the next year, we can expect that sales prices will continue to climb and this crisis is far from over. 

HOW STOREY COLLECTIVE CAN HELP

We examine GTA home sales each month to advise buyers and sellers on how best to secure and sell properties in the Greater Toronto Area. 

If you’d like advice on how to make the most of the housing market during a particular season, get in touch with Storey Collective for a free phone consultation.