Toronto

toronto

toronto

Are you worried about the effects of COVID-19, beyond our physical and mental health? Namely, the effect it is/will have on our property values, our investments? We took a deeper dive this time around when analyzing April’s numbers. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported the following for the GTA:

• The AVERAGE SALE PRICE in April 2020 was up by 0.1% year over year
• The NUMBER of SALES was down by 67% compared to April 2019
• The NUMBER of NEW LISTINGS was also down 64.1%

As expected, the number of sales AND the number of new listings were down across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The change in average sale price year over year is negligible. But these numbers include ALL of the GTA and ALL housing types (detached, semi, town, condo apt, condo town). So it’s important to break it down by area and housing type, in order to see what’s really going on.
For example, in the detached segment:

• Toronto, Halton Hills, Oakville, Milton, Burlington and Mississauga are experiencing a Balanced Market or a Seller’s Market (see definitions below).⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
• Toronto and Halton Hills have seen a decrease in year over year average sale price. Oakville, Milton, Burlington and Mississauga have seen an increase in year over year average sale price.

What do the numbers mean? When the Sales to New Listings Ratio (SNLR) is:

• 55% or more = SELLER’S MARKET = more buyers than properties for sale
• Between 36% and 54% = BALANCED MARKET = about the same number of properties for sale as there are buyers
• 35% or less = BUYER’S MARKET = more properties for sale than there are buyers

To put these numbers in perspective, we look to Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage: “From our experience with past recessions and real estate downturns, we are not expecting significant year-over-year price changes in 2020. Home price declines occur when the market experiences sustained low sales volume while inventory builds. Currently, the inventory of homes for sale in this country is very low, matching low sales volumes as people respect government mandates to stay at home.” Soper also said that while a temporary dip in prices is anticipated, there’s no indication that prices will stay lower indefinitely: “It is easy to mistakenly equate a handful of transactions at lower prices to a reset in the value of the nation’s housing stock. Distressed sales that occur during an economic crisis are a poor proxy for real estate value,” said Soper.

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